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PolicyWatch #1134
'Trust Allah, Not Nasrallah': The
Hizballah Crisis Reshapes Lebanese
Politics
By Robert Rabil
August 2, 2006
With the ongoing clashes between Israel
and Hizballah raging without respite and
Lebanon sustaining significant human and
material losses, the sociopolitical
scene in Beirut is bursting with both
centrifugal and centripetal forces.
While these forces threaten the country
with implosion, they are sparking a
national debate on patriotism that may
prevent Lebanon from disintegrating as a
sovereign state. While many Western
observers see the civilian deaths in
Qana as galvanizing Lebanese support for
Hizballah, national solidarity against
Israeli attacks should not be mistaken
for a widespread embrace of Hizballah.
Crisis Deepens Lebanese Divisions
>From the moment Hizballah sparked
hostilities with Israel on July 12 with
a crossborder raid, Lebanon's
multicommunal society has been torn by
divergent views on Hizballah. The
conflict has deepened the divides
between Lebanon's political factions and
communities. Central to this has been
the question of how a nonstate entity,
Hizballah, could monopolize the decision
of war and peace for the whole country.
Significantly, the majority of the March
14 coalition, which sparked the Cedar
Revolution, has regretted its inability
to implement UN Security Council
Resolution 1559, which calls for
Hizballah's disarmament. Many Lebanese
believe that their country has become an
arena for settling regional scores
between Israel and the United States on
one side and Iran on the other, with
Hizballah fighting Iran's war.
As the fighting continued and Lebanese
infrastructure was targeted, criticism
of Hizballah receded but did not
dissipate. Druze leader Walid Jumblat
questioned Hizballah secretary-general
Hassan Nasrallah's talk of victory by
asking, "To whom are you going to give
the victory?" Echoing some of his
colleagues in the March 14 coalition,
Dory Chamoun of the Christian Liberal
National Party criticized Nasrallah's
"uplifting talk of dignity" while the
country suffers under Israel's air raids
to degrade Hizballah's power.
But as the level of destruction and
internal displacement from the south of
Lebanon reached a crisis level, the
government of Lebanese prime minister
Fouad Siniora, came close to collapsing,
potentially plunging the country into a
dangerous political vacuum. Torn by its
inability to bring about a ceasefire and
sidelined politically by Hizballah's
independent actions, Siniora's
government was further crippled by
infighting among cabinet members.
Siniora could communicate with Nasrallah
only through parliamentary speaker Nebih
Berri. But as the ministers grasped the
danger of the government's collapse,
they rallied around Siniora in a show of
unity. This was made possible by the
flurry of international activity that
took Siniora to Rome to present his plan
for a ceasefire, and most importantly by
Hizballah's agreement to the plan. The
plan has four essential points:
returning the disputed territory Shebaa
Farms to Lebanon, extending Lebanese
authority throughout the country,
con!fining arms and authority to the
Lebanese state, and increasing the
responsibilities of UN force in south
Lebanon.
Hizballah's Domestic Position Slips
Hizballah's speedy agreement to
Siniora's plan came as a surprise to
analysts and politicians. Yet
Hizballah's ministers, Trad Hamadeh and
Muhammad Fneish, expressed reservations
only about the mission of the UN force.
Hizballah, like Syria, does not want to
see a powerful international force
guarding Lebanon's borders. Despite
Hizballah's uplifting talk of
"steadfastness, dignity, and victory,"
the organization has suffered
significantly from Israeli strikes and
has come under criticism from within the
Shiite community. Saddened by the level
of destruction wrought on Lebanon, the
prominent Shiite political columnist
Jihad al-Zein published a letter
addressed to Iranian supreme leader Ali
Khamenei in the Lebanese daily
An-Nahar
last week. The crux of al-Zein's letter
questioned Iran's use of Shiite groups
in the Middle East to advance Tehran's
political interests without regard for
the consequences local Shiite groups may
face. Al-Zein also emphasized that
although comm!unities in Lebanon have
connections with foreign powers, only
Hizballah has a military relationship
with a foreign state.
The letter sparked an immediate debate
within the Shiite community.
Participants in a forum organized in
Beirut stressed that the Shiite
community is first and foremost
Lebanese. They recalled the statement
issued by Imam Mahdi Shams al-Din in
1976 during the Lebanese Civil War,
which was embraced by the Higher Shia
Islamic Council in 1977. The statement
asserts, "Lebanon is a final country for
all its children," implying Shiite
allegiance to Lebanon and readiness to
coexist with all other communities. The
participants contrasted the Lebanese
Shiite community's tradition of relying
on various sources of religious
emulation with Iran's concept of direct
rule by clerics. They also faulted
Hizballah for pursuing a flawed policy
in the aftermath of Israel's withdrawal
from Lebanon in 2000. This, no doubt,
was an attempt to loosen Hizballah's
grip on the Shiite community.
On the other end of the political
spectrum, Samir Jaja of the Christian
Lebanese Forces reflected the opinion of
many of his colleagues in the March 14
coalition by calling for intervention by
a powerful international force and for
Hizballah's disarmament. In contrast,
the Aounist Christian leader Michel Aoun
announced a position close to Hizballah,
questioning the utility of an
international force. He called for
resolving of what he considers the root
of the problem -- a return of the
disputed Shebaa Farms and an exchange of
prisoners -- before dealing with the
question of disarming Hizballah. Despite
the polarization of these political
positions, Lebanon's major political
forces decided to support Siniora's
political agenda rather than let the
government collapse.
Apparent Unity Masks Increasing
Polarization
The unfortunate civilian deaths in a
July 30 Israeli air raid on Qana further
polarized Lebanon. Coming under immense
pressure from the public responses to
the Qana attack, Siniora cancelled a
meeting with U.S. secretary of state
Condoleezza Rice and called for an
"immediate and unconditional" ceasefire.
Internal political dynamics following
the raid apparently forced the prime
minister to bypass some of the arguments
over an international force and to call
for a ceasefire on humanitarian grounds.
Members of the international community
that had not already done so, including
the United States, also came under
pressure to call for an immediate
ceasefire. This played into Hizballah's
hands, and many in the Arab world hailed
the organization as the only Arab force
to withstand Israel's military power.
Consequently, the regional and
international media, driven by raw
emotions and some signs of support for
Hizballah, confused Lebanon's show of
unity in the face of the deepening
hum!anitarian crisis with solidarity
with Hizballah.
In fact, Lebanon is threatened by
implosion no less by the divergence of
views on Hizballah than by the internal
sectarian dynamics brought about and
deepened by the ongoing hostilities. As
Lebanese took to the street and
ransacked the UN headquarters in
response to the Qana raid, units of the
army and groups from Christian areas
guarded the entrances of their towns
from demonstrators bent on instigating
sectarian strife (Christian
neighborhoods have been ransacked in the
recent past, such as during protests
against Danish cartoons of the Prophet
Muhammad and a television satire of
Nasrallah).
Meanwhile, under the veneer of unity,
the political positions of Lebanon's
political parties have hardened. Senior
political figures have been frantically
whispering their concerns about a civil
war while publicly expressing Lebanon's
unity. A senior Christian political
figure even sent an urgent message to
Lebanese Americans to help bring about
an immediate ceasefire. Christians,
Druze, and some Sunnis are extremely
worried that the large number of Shiites
who have moved to their neighborhoods in
Mount Lebanon and the Shouf might
unleash their anger at them because they
cannot direct it either at Israel or
Hizballah.
A hopeful sign that has gone unnoticed
is that some independent Shiites are now
trying to reclaim a voice in their
community. Although Hizballah appears to
have won the day, the reality is that
the organization's power has been
degraded. Hizballah is exploiting the
hardship of the Lebanese people and the
miscalculation of the international
community to win the hearts and minds of
the Arab world. This reality has not
gone unnoticed by the silent majority of
Lebanon. As one Druze told my wife
before we were evacuated from Lebanon,
"Trust Allah, not Nasrallah."
Robert Rabil, an adjunct scholar of The
Washington Institute, is an assistant
professor and director of graduate
studies in the Department of Political
Science at Florida Atlantic University.
View this
PolicyWatch on our website at
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